低碳阴谋。Low Carbon Plot
中国与欧美的生死之战。 The Life and Death War Between China and the West.
作者：勾红洋。Author, Gou Hongyang
If you are the author of this book, I would like to thank you for giving my friends and I the opportunity to open our eyes. The parts that I have translated have already received an extremely warm welcome!
1.The Winter in Copenhagen is a bit cold.
It was all forecastable. Owing to each parties different interests and priorities, the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference was never going to result in a legally binding agreement.
Copenhagen was called, “The last chance to save humanity”. If humanity did not limit Carbon Dioxide emissions, “the planet is only 6 degrees away from catastrophe” etc. That Copenhagen did not reach any definitive final agreement left many disappointed and anxious, as every media outlet reported.
From newspapers, TV, and internet we often hear some frightening predictions. Along with the relentless increase in Greenhouse Gases, the unceasing warming of the entire world, large scale extinctions, melting of the Alaskan ice, Pacific islands that are on the verge of sinking in to the sea, the unceasing expansion of the Inner Mongolian desert and the shrinking of the Peruvian glaciers. ….
But there was a certain distance between reality and people’s fears. The cold winter weather at Copenhagen left a deep impression on attendees.
For the first few days of the conference, the winter wind wailed outside, and the last few days was pretty much full of big snowflakes swirling around, the snow reached a depth of 10 cm. As Copenhagen was in session, large parts of Germany were suffering heavy snowfall, with temperatures hitting minus 10. A lake in Bavaria even hit minus 33, the lowest recorded in Europe. 4 Eurostar trains halted under the English Channel in the emergency channel. This was the first time in 15 years that this kind of incident had occurred; and the doors of some intercity trains in Germany were frozen shut.
Far away Asia was also in the grip its usual cold winter.
At the end of December 2009, a gust of wind hit China. In the space of one night, in the northern part of Xinjiang, the temperature dropped below minus 30. At the start of 2010, the temperature in Beijing hit minus 16, the lowest recorded temperature for the last 40 years.
It was as if the freezing cold winter was having a laugh at all of these “Global Warming” theories. If the world was warming at an ever quickening pace, as all of these environmentalists say, then whence from such extreme cold? Whenever there are any doubts about Global Warming, it is almost as though environmentalists turn everything around and claim that this is too, a result of Global Warming. The Greenhouse Effect has turned in to a big basket, no matter what bad thing it is, just chuck it in.
In contrast to the freezing weather at Copenhagen, the atmosphere at the talks was still firey hot. America, Europe and also many Developing Countries, engaged in many excitable discussions about how to reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
Copenhagen attracted over 5000 reporters, 110 national leaders, in total there were 15000 attendees. It was the largest climate conference in history. Including Conference attendance and related travel arrangements, 46200 tuns of Carbon Dioxide were emitted. This is equivalents to the average annual carbon footprint of 50,000 Ethiopians and could fill 10,000 Olympic swimming pools. The Conference that was convened as a way to reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions, was itself a big culprit. Was this not adding a layer of frost on the surface of fragile snow?
Is Copenhagen truly aimed at human prosperity? Then why did this particular conference, heralded as “The future of humanity” end in a big fight?
Is the climate really getting warmer every day? Is Carbon Dioxide really the “Black hand” behind our backs? According to the strict emissions targets, do developing countries really have no right to burn coal or oil?
Is there a hidden agenda?
2. Solar Power makes electricity, but it is far too expensive for the poor.
What can Solar power do, what can wind power do?
On hearing this question, everybody will probably think, what a strange question to ask. Owing to a iron consensus of opinion brought about by a long period of propaganda, people’s thoughts will immediately change direction, and not pay any attention to the nature of the original question, and will remember that solar energy is the cleanest form of energy, is renewable, not like coal when you’ve dug it all up it’s all gone, it represents the direction of the energy resources revolution. Solar power is seen as the industry of the rising sun of the future. Who knows, maybe one day inthe future, it’ll replace all conventional forms of electricity generation.
Isn’t this the most beautiful thought possible, no pollution, everywhere is just greenery mountains and rivers, people won’t need to worry about coal mines collapsing, no need to worry about forests being chopped down, no need to worry about rising sea levels submerging island nations. It is as if, if only humanity could adopt clean energy, then all of our problems would be resolved with one sweep of the knife. But is the result really thus?
There is a very real problem staring everybody in the face. Solar power, wind power, can they be implemented on a large scale? Can they provide large scale industries with enough electricity? Can they supply trains with the power to fly along the tracks?
It is obvious, that the answer is in the negative.
Solar power is the same as wind power, not stable in the slightest. A cloudy or rainy day, and the ability of solar power to generate electricity is influenced, in a big way. We see that windmills will stand there, not moving for long periods of time, because wind is not constant, sometimes and sometimes not, it’ll lose its temper.
With the current state of technology, there are still many difficulties with storing electricity form large scale electricty [farms]. Just turn electrical power in to chemical power, and then turn it back in to electrical power at the time of need, is ok. But the efficiency of such conversions is not great, this still needs research.
One obvious conclusion is that: traditional energy sources are irreplacable, wind power, solar power and other new energy resources can only fill the gap over a long period of time. For these new energy resources to be used in large scale manufacturing industries, well, there is still a long way to go.
But in Africa, and many other non-developed coutries, we often see some green environmental organizations publicizing everywher all knids of save the environment theories, holding all kinds of training, and speeches, teaching the local people how to use electricity, giving people the knowledge about how to nurture environmental conciousness; how to battle heavy pollution, avoid using oil, avoid using coal, and how it is best to use solar power and wind power.
Where did this solar and wind power equipment come from? The answer is Europe. Nuclear power tech is primarily in the hands of the French, whilst wind, solar, nuclear power techs are also concentrated in Eurpean, USA etc. countries.
In 2009, May, when the African Union were implementing these policies with Western enery experts, they were interviewed by [luxiushe], and said that electricity was terribly important for manufacturing, agriculture, and other industries, but only 30% of the population had access to electricity.
Africa has an incredible amount of coal and oil, yet in the eyes of the environmentalists, these resources are not to be touched. They can only use clean energy, and must wait for solar, wind and other new energy methods to mature, only then may they gain the opportunity to develop their economy.
In order to look after the environment, and not destroy nature, many countries in Africa must buy terribly expensive solar and wind power equipment from Europe. Yet this causes them to spend much of their hard earned money, and credit; and also causes them to forsake other development opportunities.
To use a metaphor, traditional energy sources are still the poor man’s staple food; whilst solar, wind power etc. can be eaten once in a while, anything more is rather idealistic. If poor people were to rely primarily on renewable energy sources, these beautiful, upmarket foodstuffs, then after a while they’d more than likely starve to death.
Currently, solar panels have an energy conversion rate of about 15-20%. Whilst newer, more advanced solar panels have an energy conversion rate that is limited at 29%. so, their cost is much higher than their returns. In a situation where there are no subsidies, there are absolutely no advantages to using solar and wind power over traditional coal and hydro etc.
If we take another look at Europe; although wind and solar have been implemented on a large scale, but they are still heavily reliant on traditional energy sources, like coal, and hydro. Solar panels have become one of the greatest modern status symbols for the wealthy.
Is solar power really clean? Investigations show that the base silicon that solar panels rely on is extracted via a energy intensive, heavily polluting industry. And where is this industry based? China.
China has already become the world’s biggest photovoltaic industrial market. The most important ingredient in solar power is polycrystalline silicon. The efficiency of manufacturing the panels is rather low, and a lot of pollution is generated as a by-product. When local industries started producing polycrystalline silicon, they were mostly reliant on outdated technology. Apart from high energy consumption, for every ton of pure polycrystalline silicon created, there were also more than 8 tons of ammonium chlorid[adized] silcon as by-product, as well as [many other nasties that a cursory look at google translate doesn’t answer].
The prosperity of China’s solar power industry, at the price of the environment of those rather weak distant regions, in order to attract commerce and investment, in order to collect tax revenue, very many environmental appraisal programmes have not yet been strictly implemented.
Looking at China’s solar power market, and also nuclear technology, important raw materials, the sales market abroad, etc, China is only a simple processing factory, transporting profit abroad, its own body covered in grime and sweat.
3. Gore’s Home is “An Inconvenient Truth”
When the topic of environmental protection was first brought up, it was probably for only the simplest of desires, the wish that by reducing environmental pollution, man’s excessive reliance on natural resources would be reduced, and allow man to properly embark on the journey of sustainable development.
But, development of environmental protection to this point in time, has resulted in it becoming an artifice of politics and economics. detached from its original rails, it has become a farce, a [popularity contest]. Politicians, civil society organizations, research institutes, scholars, real estate industry, bankers, take it in turns to get up on stage, anxious to have their say; every single issue somehow gets hung on the nail that is environmental protection. Underneath the flag of environmental protection, everything must stand to one side; anything with an opposing voice, quickly gets drowned in moralistic flem.
There is an inconvenient truth: if we implement strict environmental protection measures, set environmental protection standards that are too high, this means that many factories will have to close, halt production, leading to even more people losing employment opportunities, income will fall, life will become more difficult, leading to more social unrest and disasters.
Therefore, those that we see the most are Ladies and Gentlemen from the developed western countries, with an incredibly haughty attitude, coming up with all kinds of slogans for the developing world, slogans to help developing countries scramble for profit, but all these slogans can’t cover up their arrogance and prejudice.
The American former Vice-President, Gore did an environmental protection documentary called “The Inconvenient Truth”, for which he won an Oscar for in 2007 in the Best Documentary category. This film, with environmental protection as the subject, called for people to reduced their carbon dioxide emissions, so as to protect our fragile Earth.
But in Gore’s home there is an “inconvenient truth”. On the second day after he’d won the gold Oscar statuette, a truth was leaked by an employee of the Government Research Centre that gave him pause for thought. For the previous two years average electricity usage in the Gore household increased from 16,200 kWh to 18,400 kWh. This figure is between 15 and 20 times greater than the average American household’s usage, and 100 times greater than the average Chinese household’s.
Apart from this, his monthly natural gas expenditure exceeded $1000. Based on these figures, Gore’s monthly expenditure on electricity and gas came close to $30,000.
Looking again at Developing Countries, and not Developed Countries, there are still hundreds of millions of people with no real opportunity to use electricity.
At the recently passed Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference, the hosts Denmark, and Australia and a few other developed countries submitted a proposal, which specifically stipulated, that the average carbon footprint for people living in developing countries should be set at 1.44 tonnes, but the footprint of those living in developed countries was set at 2.9 tonnes. Maybe in the eyes of the westerner, they are the real master of the earth, and other countries can only provide a supporting role. The westerners are forever guilty of double standards.
The most advanced environmentally friendly technology is gripped in the hands of the developed countries. In order to protect the environment, they do not wish to make even the slightest concession.
At the Copenhagen Summit, the EU proposed that in the 3 years from 2010 to 2012 it would provide $10 billion in aid to help developing countries respond to the challenge of climate change. This action was seen as compensation for the damage caused by pollution during the past 200 years of industrialization in Europe and America. But, what is the use of this $30 billion? How much is left when it is divvied out in to all of the devoloping countries hands, and exactly how much expensive green technology machinery can it buy?
The Westerners’ arrogance and callousness towards the failure of the Copenhagen United Nations Conference planted seeds. The defeat at this conference made obvious the polar opposite of each sides position, the conflict between the poor countries grouping and the rich countries grouping has deepened.
4. The Carbon Plot is Gradually Rising to the Surface
This world is run according to the law of the jungle.
The Developed Countries [EU,USA+etc.] are attempting to use the Greenhouse Effect to lock up the development of the Developing world with Morality Manacles. This is a bit like those well-known political figures in Taiwan, how in everything that they do, they must advertise how much they “love Taiwan”, how everything they do is in the interests of the 23 million Taiwanese; otherwise everything these political figures do will lose all credibility. But the one proclaimed as “The Son of Taiwan”, “Our Bian” [most likely Chen Shuibian] has at the same time as saying that he “loves Taiwan”, has also been incessantly swindling money. In the same way, Developed Countries have on the one hand been conducting propaganda for low carbon emissions, has on the other hand been thoughtlessly emitting Greenhouse Gases. As a result of this incessant propaganda and speculation, the unluckly “carbon” has suddenly turned into a most heinous, sinister ghoul; like a butterfly far away in China, it only has to flap its wings, and will create a violent wind in Alaska that’ll envelop the American people in fire and water.
Humanities actions — Industrialization, is it really the primary source of Carbon Dioxide? It evidently is not.
Will the increase in Carbon Dioxide definitely lead to the planet warming? Although there have been many many reports published by research institutes that verify this, but from the viewpoint of the history of man, and scientific method, the theories have not yet achieved scientific proof.
But, after many years of repeated indoctrination from every kind of propaganda machine, and the mixing together of environmental pollution and the exhaustion of natural resources, people have already formed a conditioned reflex, when the wind blows, the grass bends with it, and quickly hang these things on the hook of “carbon”, and attempted to get rid of carbon at a faster rate. We need to start peeling, and get back to the real world, and cannot stick labels everywhere. “Carbon” is the same “carbon” it was before, we must not get in to too much of a fluster. It is with polluted water/effluent, acid rain, destructive logging and waste with which we must struggle over the long term.
Behind the back of the demonizing of “carbon”, we must recognize that it is the sinister intention of the Developed Countries to attempt to use “carbon” to block the living space of the Developing Countries.
There is only one Earth, natural resources are limited. If according to current technological conditions, and Developing Countries had the same living standard as Developed Countries, then we’d need at least 3 to 5 Earth’s to satisfy our apetites. This is what Developed Countries are most afraid of, the development of the Developing Countries poses an enormous threat to their way of lives.
In 2008, the price of foodstuffs substantially increased, a certain President actually said that the primary reason was because suddenly, one day, 300 million Indians started to eat two bowls of rice, and one billion Chinese started to drink milk.
In the eyes of some Westerners, the many developing countries have absolutely no right to enjoy the same standard of life as them.
If we really are equal, are of one mind, and together protect the Earth – our garden, we really can see a beautiful utopia in the future. But the Developed countries do not in the slightest wish to take any responsibility, they have set up double standards over “carbon emissions”, everywhere reflecting their arrogance and selfishness.
Behind “the Carbon Plot” is national interest, it is the bitter struggle for the right to existance for every country.
At this time, we again see the struggle between two camps, Europe, the USA and other developed countries, and China, India, Brazil, and Russia as the representatives of the Developing Countries, owing to their common interest, now walking closely together.
5. Carbon, whose neck is being strangled?
Carbon, whose neck is being strangled?
“Carbon tax” and “carbon emissions reductions” will provide you with the answer.
Europe and America have already entered the post-industrialized age. Heavy pollution, and heavy reliance on coal, oil, and other fossil fuels, labour intensive industries, have mostly been passed on to the Developing Countries.
The Developed Countries’ “Carbon tax” and “carbon emissions reductions”, have become two of the most effective weapons with which to oppress Developing Countries. After donning the “moral overcoat”, they start to attack the Developing Countries.
The wishful thinking of the Developed Countries is to sustain the current international situation, they can not let the poor countries destroy their luxiourious lifestyle.
Up to this point, countries such as Europe and the USA have used “carbon tax” and “carbon emissions reductions” to claim the moral high ground, and are putting an enormous amount of pressure on China and other Developing Countries.
Most behind the “carbon tax” is the USA, this cannot be separated from America’s trade organizations. America has the largest trade deficit in the world, primarily imported low value added goods, like oil, coal, and some manufactured goods that it is heavily reliant on, its primary exports are high-tech products. These products’ reliance on oil, coal and related substances, is comparatively low. The American tertiary sector has been in surplus for a long time. If the “carbon tax” was imposed, Developing Countries’ products would lose competitiveness in the American marketplace. This is the best excuse possible for America to implement protectionism, which will also help America reduce the impact of the recent economic crisis.
The primary mover behind “carbon emissions reductions” is the European Union, the region where new energy resources technology is leagues ahead of the other countries in the world. They have already prepared every kind of rulebook for the “Low Carbon Age”; this is an arranged set of factors , or trap, waiting for Developing Countries to meander in.
As Developing Countries are currently in the rapidly industrializing and urbanizing stage; if the “Carbon emissions reductions” proposals proposed by the European Union were implemented, in order to reduce carbon emissions, Developing Countries would pay a heavy price, and lose hard to come by opportunities for development.
At present, “carbon tax” and “carbon emissions reduction” have already become a convergence of trends, the international alliances have evolved in to the EU, America, and other Developed Countries in a confrontation with China, India, Brazil, South Africa, the heads of the Developing Countries.
The recent Climate Change Conference at Copenhagen proved that the struggle between the two camps in the worlds is becoming more heated day by day. Carbon emissions reductions will, after today, become the primary ground for every country to wrestle over.
Many research institutes have already lost the ability for truth and steadfastness, with the shadows of American and European credit and investment flickering behind them, they have descended to becoming hatchetmen and accomplices.
Yet at the present moment, China and other countries still have enough time to wriggle out of this. The Developed Countries do not wish to take responsibility for the technology, capital and other related obligations. Their intent to use carbon emission reductions to establish a barrier to development is obvious; China and the Third World still hold the advantage in the United Nations, and can form a useful way to something Developed Countries. The encircling of carbon is continuing, this is a smokeless war, its influence on the future configuration of the world will be incredibly deep. Developing Countries are again facing a tough challenge, and it could require the Developing Countries to form an alliance to confront the Developed Countries, to struggle to obtain their own space to live.
China, as a responsble big country must continue to act as the representative who acts in the interests of the Third World, and must expose the lies of America and the other countries who use carbon tax as a way to continue to [oppress] the peoples of the Third World, to look after the national interest, and sustain the advantages of development, and avoid carbon taxes like Japan’s “Kyoto Protocol”, thus becoming chains constraining China’s future development.
Taking the long view, China positively must increase research in to renewables, and to continuously be at the front of the wave of technological development, to strive to be at the head of the renewables technology research, so as to ensure that at the next technological revolution, China is the leader, and not just passively responding to changes. China also needs to take hold of the opportunity of low carbon technologies, to positively restructure industry, sort out backwards manufacturing capacity, and reduce reliance on imports and exports, to positively transform the method of economic growth, and to strive to take the initiative in international trade disputes. With the current conditions, China has an enormous population, with a vast difference in economic performance in eastern and western regions. After the next-gen high speed rail network has been completed, the internal Chinese market will grow at a faster rate.
A war over the encirclement of carbon has started, this is a war of life and death, neither side can afford to lose, this will be a long war, in the short term, it is impossible to know whom to expect to win; this is a war of those for the conspiracy and those against the conspiracy. It is related to the destiny of the Developing and Un-Developed Countries, who have 80% of the world’s population, this is a fight of life and death.
We need to be rational, soberly and scientifically attack every issue to do with “carbon”, we mustn’t become accomplices of the enemy, and must work in accord with China’s development, and in the interests of the whole of humanity with regards to “carbon policy strategy”.
Part 2 of this translation can be found here